Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
